This research brief analyzes Thailand’s rapidly declining population and argues that the country must adopt a long-term “replacement migration” strategy—importing approximately 200,000 people per year—to prevent severe demographic and economic consequences. Drawing on global projections (including The Lancet’s 2020 forecast),the brief highlights that Thailand could lose more than half of its population by the end of the century.

The brief positions large-scale immigration as an opportunity rather than a crisis. It proposes three key objectives: (1) integrating foreign residents into national development projects such as the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), (2) selecting quality migrants who can contribute to social development, culture, the environment, and local well-being, and (3) allowing local administrative organizations across 7,850 areas to select and integrate newcomers in alignment with local economic needs, particularly SMEs.

Overall, the brief emphasizes that a carefully managed replacement migration policy grounded in decentralization, social inclusion, and proactive planning can strengthen civil society, reduce inequality, and transform Thailand’s demographic challenge into a long-term national opportunity.

Access: open

Author: Aphichat Chamratrithirong

Affiliation: Institution for Population and Social Research

Date: 22/09/2023

Language: English, Thai, and Burmese

Country: Thailand